The Crowning Expectation

Both the Gartner Hype Cycle and the First Word/ Last Word analysis are interpretations of society expectations. The Hype Cycle takes a more quantitative, objective view, determining humanity’s interest in technologies based numerical data collected from the technology’s emergence and reaction. First Word/ Last Word looks at emerging art in a similar way: initially, the viability of a newly birthed medium is often questioned, just as a newly emerging technology rank low in expectations on the Hype Cycle. Over time the medium and the technology rise along the expectation curve as audiences become more interested in their functions and applications. Both reach a peak in expectations, during which time the Last Word artwork or crowning refinement of the technology is created. Expectations of improvement plummet due to the Last Word’s success, but the medium/technology is still in use. Gradually the method resumes some of its former expectations as it reaches a mainstream level.

I think Schulze prefers working in The Trough of Disillusionment because the technology/medium takes on new connotations and conceptual value as a symbol of society with its fall from glory. For example, what once was only available only to the wealthy can now be accessed by the masses. I tend to build from established tools, so I too prefer to work from the Trough.